Typhoon Parma (19W) Hits Northern Philippines
Typhoon Parma (19W) located approximately 245 nm east of Manila, Philippines, has tracked northwestward at 15 knots over the past six hours.
Typhoon 19W continues to track on the southern periphery of the the sub-tropical ridge to the northeast. The system is expected to continue on a west-northwestward to northwestward track towards the northeastern coast of Luzon, making landfall near tau 12.
The system will weaken as it crosses northern Luzon into the Luzon Strait before moving slowly into the south China Sea. The available numerical model guidance is in poor agreement, with several aids (NGPS, EGRR, GFDN) crossing north-central Luzon and moving further into the south China Sea.
The remaining aids (JGSM, AVNO, WBAR and TCLP) indicate a recurvature scenario, with avno being the most agressive of these (reaching Tokyo at tau 120). This forecast favors the more westward grouping, but reflects the uncertainty in the extended period, tracking much more slowly in the after tau 72.
Maximum significant wave height at 020600z is 32 feet. Please click here for a previous article on both typhoons.