Typhoon Melor (20W)16.6N 130.0E
Typhoon 20w (Melor), located approximately 235 nm southeast of Okinawa, Japan, has tracked north-northwestward at 14 knots over the past six hours.
Recent animated multispectral imagery continues to show a fully-developed typhoon with a well-defined eye and animated water vapor imagery indicates that typhoon Melor has developed better poleward outflow into the mid-latitude westerlies as it is starting to crest the subtropical ridge axis.
However, recent infrared imagery reveals waning deep convection and Dvorak estimates from PGTW, KNES, and RJTD have dropped in the last 12 hours. The current intensity is based on these Dvorak estimates.
The current position is also based on fixes by the same agencies, with high confidence. The current numerical model aids are in good agreemeent with the system starting recurvature within the next 12 to 18 hours.
The aids also agree on landfall west of Tokyo, Japan, after tau 36. Maximum significant wave height at 060600z is 38 feet.