Typhoon Choi-Wan Forecast to Intensify15.9N 149.0E
Typhoon Choi-Wan (15W), located approximately 115 nautical miles east-northeast of Saipan, in the Northern Mariana Islands, has tracked west-northwestward at 3 knots over the past six hours.
Animated multispectral imagery shows deep convective bands wrapping into a well-defined low level circulation center, visible along the left edge of the image. Animated water vapor imagery shows excellent dual outflow channels enhanced by a tropical upper tropospheric trough to the north and a mesoscale anticyclone just to the east of the system.
TY 15W is tracking along the southern periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge to the north in a corridor of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. The current position is derived from multiple agency fixes and from a high resolution visible image showing an eye with a thin cirrus canopy. Typhoon Choi-Wan is expected to move in a more northwestward direction as the steering ridge weakens with the approach of two mid-latitude troughs from the northwest.
The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates averaging T4.5. The system is forecast to further intensify into a very strong typhoon (in excess of 100 knots) as the environment remains favorable for development. Maximum significant wave height is 27 feet.