Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Approaching Bangladesh15.2N 83.3E
Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) is forecast to track northeastward along the poleward oriented subtropical ridge until westerly flow advects the system overland.
Upper level analysis indicates an anticyclone to the east of the system continues to move into better vertical alignment with the low level circulation center (LLCC), leading to a decrease in vertical wind shear (VWS) to low levels (10 knots).
A slight intensification over the next 12 hours is expected as the LLCC remains in a low VWS environment, but due to the track speed and proximity to the coast of Bangladesh, this increase will be short-lived. Dissipation is expected to begin upon making landfall around TAU 24 and will be fully dissipated by TAU 36. Dynamical model guidance is in tight agreement, leading the JTWC forecast to be positioned close to the multi-model consensus with high confidence.