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Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Approaching Bangladesh

15.2N 83.3E

May 16th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 15th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) is forecast to track northeastward along the poleward oriented subtropical ridge until westerly flow advects the system overland.

Upper level  analysis indicates an anticyclone to the east of the system  continues to move into better vertical alignment with the low level circulation center (LLCC),  leading to a decrease in vertical wind shear (VWS) to low levels (10  knots).

A slight intensification over the next 12 hours is expected as the LLCC remains in a low VWS environment, but due to the track speed and proximity to the coast of Bangladesh, this increase will be short-lived. Dissipation is expected to begin upon making landfall around TAU 24 and will be fully dissipated by TAU 36. Dynamical model guidance is in tight agreement, leading the JTWC forecast to be positioned close to the multi-model consensus with high confidence.

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