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Tropical Storm 02W (Chan-Hom) Expected to Make Landfall

May 6th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm 02W - May 5th, 2009

Tropical Storm 02W - May 5th, 2009

TS 02W - enhanced image

TS 02W - enhanced image

Track of TS 02W © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 02W

Tropical Storm 02W (Chan-Hom), located approximately 400 nautical miles west of Manila, Philippines, has tracked northeastward at 6 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 19 feet.

Animated water vapor imagery indicates the system has maintained its ragged symmetry over the past 12 hours.

Upper level analysis indicates TS 02W is tracking along the north-west periphery of a mid-level near-equatorial ridge to the Southeast.

The cyclone is also exhibiting good radial outflow as it tracks along an area of low vertical wind shear.
Chan-Hom is expected to slowly intensify and begin tracking on a more eastward direction towards northern Luzon over the next 24 to 48 hours.

After TAU 48, TS 02W will make landfall just north of the Gulf of Lingayen, cross into Luzon and dissipate just off the northeastern point.

An alternate scenario is for the system to turn north towards Taiwan around TAU 48, as suggested by a few guidance models, although this scenario is less likely at this time.

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