Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Off Coast of Australia – April 30th, 201314.8S 145.5E
Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P), located approximately 315 nm northeast of Cairns, Australia, has tracked west-southwestward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.
Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows that the low level circulation center (LLCC) has continued to organize, with Dvorak estimates from indicating the LLCC has intensified to warning status.
Upper level analysis indicates the LLCC is located below the axis of a subtropical ridge, which is providing favorable poleward outflow. Sea surface temperatures are between 28 to 29 degrees Celsius and are expected to remain favorable as the LLCC tracks westward, making landfall between TAU 24 and 36.
Land interaction and dry air entrainment over Australia will start the dissipation of the system by TAU 48 with complete dissipation by TAU 72. There is a high level of uncertainty with the forecast, as the system moves back into the gulf of Carpentaria, due to the mix of dry air entrainment and favorable surface conditions competing for the dominant influence on intensity