Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Expected to Dissipate Over Gulf of Carpentaria14.6S 146.9E
Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) is being driven westward by a mid- to high- level anticyclone over the Coral Sea, which is weakening and pulling away towards the Solomon Islands.
In anticipation of the weaker steering influence, the JTWC track forecast hedges a little bit slower and poleward, but remains close to, consensus. Intensity guidance consistently indicates rapid weakening and dissipation of the system over the Gulf of Carpentaria, primarily due to VWS.
Although animated water vapor imagery is beginning to reveal some increased subsidence over the western side of the storm, solid radial outflow persists along with a weak poleward tap. Upper level streamline analysis depicts a ridge firmly entrenched over the Gulf of Carpentaria and top end of Australia, which will keep the system under less than 20 knots of VWS along its track.
Hence the VWS values given by the guidance appear over-done, and the JTWC forecast follows a slower dissipation trend. Track confidence is high through the first 48 hours, then very low afterwards due to the uncertainty in the intensity (and hence the associated steering environment) after TAU 48