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Tropical Cyclone Victoria (22S) Expected to Dissipate

16.8S 112.5E

April 12th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 11th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Twenty Two (22s) - April 11th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 22s

Tropical Cyclone Victoria (22S) will continue tracking poleward throughout the forecast period along the western periphery of the deep-layered subtropical ridge (STR) to the east and ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough.

Upper level analysis indicates TC 22S is located to the south of the STR axis, with moderate to strong levels (20 to 30 knots) of vertical wind shear (VWS) building in advance of the aforementioned trough. Over the next 48 hours, increasing VWS and decreasing sea surface temperatures will lead to the dissipation of the system to below warning threshold. Model guidance is in good agreement with the forecast track through TAU 48, and leads to high confidence in the forecast track. Maximum significant wave height is 25 feet.

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