Tropical Cyclone Sandra Tracking South-southwestward at 8 Knots21.2S 152.5E
Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P), located approximately 270 nm west-southwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, has tracked south-southwestward at 08 knots over the past six hours.
Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows the low level circulation center has become almost fully exposed as the convection has significantly weakened and sheared southward. The initial position is based on the above animation with high confidence.
The initial intensity is based on the high end of Dvorak estimates from PGTW, PHFO, and NFFN. Upper level analysis indicates the system has moved well south of the ridge axis and into an area of strong (30-40) knot northerly vertical wind shear (VWS).
The cyclone is tracking along the western periphery of a deep subtropical ridge and is expected to continue along this track until it becomes embedded in the baroclinic zone and becomes a cold core low by TAU 48.