Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) Tracking Along Periphery of Subtropical Ridge18.6S 153.2E
Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) is currently tracking along the southern periphery of the near equatorial ridge. After TAU 48, an extension of the subtropical ridge to the east is expected to build and assume steering, bringing the cyclone to a more southeastward trajectory. All environmental factors support further intensification during the forecast period with a peak of 100 knots expected by TAU 72.
TC 19S should begin to weaken by TAU 96 as vertical wind shear increases and ocean parameters become less favorable. Model guidance has come into better agreement with GFS the slowest and to the right of consensus. The current forecast lies just to the left of and faster than consensus to offset GFS. Due to the improved model agreement, there is now a high confidence in the track forecast.