Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) Forecast to Continue Tracking Southward17.5S 153.9E
Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) is tracking slowly along the western periphery of the deep subtropical ridge (STR) positioned to the east. Since the STR is expected to remain north-south oriented, TC 19P is forecast to continue tracking southward through TAU 72.
The system is forecast to begin extra-tropical transition (ETT) by TAU 48 and should complete ETT by TAU 72. Dynamic model guidance is in good agreement with the bulk of the models supporting the current JTWC forecast track. TC 19P is to weaken significantly after TAU 24 as the system encounters strong vertical wind shear and tracks over cooler SSTs. A sharper weakening trend is expected after TAU 36 as TC 19P tracks over very cold SSTs (less than 23C). Overall, there is high confidence in the JTWC forecast track.