Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) Expected to Peak at 120 Knots22.5S 152.5E
Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) is forecast to continue tracking southward through the forecast period and is expected to begin extra- tropical transition (ETT) by TAU 96 as it begins to interact with a weak baroclinic zone near latitude 30S. The system should complete ETT by TAU 120.
Dynamic model guidance is in fair agreement with the bulk of the models supporting the current JTWC forecast track. GFS remains an outlier, continuing to show an unlikely sharp southwestward turn after TAU 72; however, analysis of the model fields indicates that the GFS model is erroneously merging the system into an approaching midlatitude shortwave trough.
TC 19P is expected to intensify to a peak intensity of 120 knots by TAU 12 and is forecast to weaken significantly after TAU 36 as the system encounters strong vertical wind shear and tracks over cooler SSTs. A sharper weakening trend is expected after TAU 72 as TC 19P tracks over very cold SSTs(less than 23C).