Tropical Cyclone Jal (05B) Expected to Make Landfall Near Chennai, India
Tropical Cyclone Jal (05B), located approximately 170 nm east-southeast of Chennai, India, has tracked west-northwestward at 10 knots over the past six hours.
Animated infrared satellite imagery and an SSMIS microwave pass depict tightly curved low level banding wrapping into a well-defined low level circulation center (LLCC) with deep central convection displaced slightly west of the system center.
The current intensity has remained steady at 70 knots based on Dvorak estimates ranging from 55 to 77 knots. Maximum significant height is 22 feet.
TC Jal remains south of the ridge axis in an area of strong upper level diffluence and good equatorward outflow in the western quadrants. Vertical wind shear over the system has relaxed slightly, which may allow the system to intensify slightly before making landfall near Chennai, India within the next 12 to 18 hours.
TC 05B has been tracking along the southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical steering ridge and is
expected to continue along a northwestward track throughout the forecast period. The system will weaken as it tracks inland and dissipate below warning criteria (35 knots) for the north Indian Ocean basin by TAU 48. There remains a slight chance the system could re-intensify if it re-emerges in the northeastern Arabian Sea.