Tropical Cyclone Imelda (21S) with Shallower Convection11.8S 53.4E
Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S), located approximately 405 nm north-northeast of La Reunion, has tracked south-southeastward at 08 knots over the past six hours.
Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts the associated convection has become more shallow and is now displaced 60 nm southeast of a fully exposed low level circulation center. The initial position is based on the above animation and on an SSMI-S microwave pass with fair confidence. The initial intensity is based on congruent subjective Dvorak estimates from PGTW, KNES, and FIMP.
Upper level analysis indicates the system is 10 degrees south of a ridge axis in an area of low to moderate (05-10 knot) vertical wind shear (VWS). Along-track sea surface temperatures remain favorable at 28-30 degrees Celsius. These dynamics are, for now, sustaining the convection; however, a narrow mid-latitude trough to the west is beginning to erode the western rim of the system.