Tropical Cyclone Imelda (21S) Weakening21.7S 52.7E
Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S) is currently tracking southward along the western periphery of the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge but is forecast to turn westward as it weakens and begins to steer under the influence of a broad, transitory midlatitude ridge building to the south.
Dynamic model guidance is in good agreement, therefore, there is high confidence in the JTWC forecast track. The system is expected to weaken through the forecast period due to persistent moderate to strong vertical wind shear associated with subtropical westerly flow, and marginal sea surface temperature values near 26C.
Surface winds over the southern semi-circle are forecast to remain near gale-force levels due to the enhanced gradient associated with the aforementioned high building south of the system. Maximum significant wave height is 22 feet.