Tropical Cyclone Imelda (21S) Tracking Westward11.6S 57.6E
Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S) is tracking westward along the periphery of a subtropical ridge to the south.
Imelda will turn poleward after TAU 24 as a mid-latitude trough approaching from the southwest weakens the steering ridge. Steady intensification is expected over the next 24 hours as vertical wind shear (VWS) relaxes and the cyclone passes across relatively warm water.
Enhanced poleward outflow after TAU 24 will result in a brief period of faster intensification before increasing westerly VWS begins to erode the system. Although dynamical model guidance is in generally good agreement with this forecast scenario, spread in the sharpness of the poleward turn remains. Based on this spread in the guidance, there is decreased confidence in the JTWC forecast track after TAU 36.