Tropical Cyclone Imelda (21S) Tracking Southeastward at 14 Knots20.1S 52.0E
Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S), located approximately 340 nm east-northeast of La Reunion, has tracked southeastward at 14 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 32 feet.
Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates the system has significantly deepened. Additionally, an eye has opened then closed in the past 12 hours. The initial intensity is based on closely-grouped agency fixes and lined up well with a central warm spot on an SSMI-S microwave pass.
The initial intensity is based on a consensus of subjective Dvorak estimates from PGTW, KNES, and FIMP. Upper level analysis indicates the system is south of a ridge axis in an area of moderate (15-20 knot) northwesterly vertical wind shear (VWS); however, poleward outflow, which is enhancing the convection, remains robust, as evidenced on animated water vapor imagery.