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Tropical Cyclone Imelda (21S) Expected to Turn Back to Southward Trajectory

20.6S 52.7E

April 14th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 13th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) - April 12th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 21S

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S) should revert to a generally poleward trajectory by TAU 12 after it rounds the southern edge of the steering ridge. After TAU 48, a building subtropical ridge to the south will begin to deflect the cyclone westward.

The system will peak intensity over the next 12 hours as good outflow persists; afterwards, increasing vertical wind shear (VWS) will gradually weaken and eventually dissipate the system by TAU 72. The available numeric guidance is widely spread and lends low confidence to the track forecast. Maximum significant wave height is 25 feet.

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