Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) Peak Intensity Expected to be 75 Knots20.6S 39.3E
Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) (click here for previous images) is forecast to weaken due to land interaction near TAU 72, then more significant weakening as it tracks over cooler SSTs and encounters increasing vertical wind shear south of Madagascar.
The system is forecast to complete ETT by TAU 120. Overall, the dynamic model guidance is in fair agreement and supports the JTWC forecast track; however, there is low confidence in the JTWC forecast due to the weak steering enviroment and uncertainties in track speed after TAU 72. The system is now expected to intensify to a peak of 75 knots by TAU 36 due to favorable conditions. Maximum significant wave height is 20 feet.