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Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) Forecast to Track into Cooler Waters

22.1S 37.9E

February 21st, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) – February 20th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) - February 20th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 16S

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S), is forecast to increase in intensity for the next 24 hours to a peak of 85 knots.

After TAU 24, increasing vertical wind shear and land interaction will begin to weaken the system. Haruna is forecast to begin extra-tropical transition (ETT) as it tracks into cooler waters (less than 26 degrees Celsius) southeast of Madagascar and complete ETT by TAU120.

The dynamic model guidance is in fair agreement despite varying speeds and the proximity to Madagascar. therefore the JTWC forecast track lies close to multi- model consensus with low confidence, based on the current weak steering environment.

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