Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) Expected to Make Landfall Over Southern Madagascar23S 39.3E
Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) is tracking along the southern periphery of an extension of the subtropical high (STH) to the east that has been weakened by a mid-latitude trough currently south of the cyclone and transiting eastward.
TC 16S is about to make landfall into southern Madagascar. The interaction with the rugged terrain of the island, increasing VWS, and cooling SSTs after land passage will rapidly erode the system. Haruna will dissipate as a significant tropical cyclone over water by TAU 96. The available numeric guidance is in fair agreement with EGRR as the left and WBAR the right outlier. This track forecast is laid close to consensus with high confidence.