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Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) Forecast to Intensify

9.3S 77.3E

February 13th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) – February 11th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) - February 12th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 15S

Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S), is tracking along the northwest periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge, which is forecast to weaken with the approach of a mid-latitude shortwave trough over the next 48 hours, allowing the system to re-curve into the mid-latitude westerlies.

TC 15S is forecast to intensify through TAU 48 under favorable upper-level conditions, peaking at 85 knots. After TAU 48, the system will begin to weaken due to increasing VWS and cooler SSTs (less than 25ºC).

Gino is forecast to begin extra-tropical transition (ETT) near TAU 72 and will complete ETT by TAU 96 as it becomes embedded within the baroclinic zone. Dynamic model guidance is in good agreement with minor differences in the timing of re-curvature and track speeds in the extended TAUs. There is high confidence in the JTWC track forecast. Maximum significant wave height is 20 feet.

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