Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) Forecast to Begin Extra Tropical Transitioning19.5S 75.9E
Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S), located approximately 1110 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia, has tracked south-southeastward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 21 feet.
Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a partially-exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) with deep convection sheared over the southeast quadrant of the LLCC. Despite the recent weakening trend, an SSMIS image indicates deep convective banding wrapping from the east quadrant into the southwest quadrant and tightly-curved, shallow banding elsewhere.
The initial intensity is assessed at 70 knots based on the lower end of Dvorak current intensity estimates ranging from 65 to 90 knots. TC 15S is forecast to track southeastward along the southwest periphery of the subtropical ridge and will encounter strong (40 to 60 knots) vertical wind shear (VWS) and cooler SSTs (24 to 25C), which will serve to rapidly weaken the system.
Gino is forecast to begin extra-tropical transition (ETT) by TAU 12 and should complete ETT by TAU 36. The dynamic models indicate a weak ETT with the remnant low becoming quasi-stationary near TAU 36 and turning northwestward as a strong high builds in to the south. The model guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, therefore, there is high confidence in the JTWC forecast track. Due to the strong VWS and cooler SST, there is a possibility that the system will weaken below 35 knots prior to completing ETT.