Tropical Cyclone Forming in North Indian Ocean
Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within a 225 nautical miles radius of 12.7N 87.8E within the next 12 to 24 hours.
Winds in the area are estimated to be 27 to 32 knots, and the system is moving northward at 3 knots.
The area of convection is located approximately 440 nautical miles east of Chennai, India. Multispectral imagery depicts a well defined low level circulation center (LLCC) with multiple deep convective bands wrapping into it, located near 12.7N 87.8E.
An AMSU-B pass indicates fragmented banding wrapping into the LLCC with the deepest convection located near the center and on the southeastern periphery.
A QUIKSCAT pass shows 20-25 knot winds wrapping around the eastern periphery and into the center of the LLCC. Upper level analysis indicates that the LLCC is located under an upper-level ridge axis that provides good equatorward and poleward outflow channels and low vertical wind shear.
Sea surface temperatures are favorable for development throughout the region. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27 to 32 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1001 mb.
Due to increased consolidation and organization over the last 6 hours, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good.