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Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert North of Australia

March 30th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone formation - March 30th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone formation - March 30th, 2009

Development of area of convection © Univ. of Wisconsin

Development of area of convection

Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within a 175 nm radius of 9.3S 129.8E within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Winds in the area are estimated to be at 23 to 28 knots. METSAT imagery indicates that a circulation center is located near 9.3S 129.8E. The system is quasi-stationary.

The area of convection is located approximately 200 nautical miles north-northwest of Darwin, Australia.

Recent animated multispectral imagery indicates weak convective banding wrapping into the low level circulation center (LLCC). Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb.

Enhanced image

Enhanced image

A 200 mb anticyclone has formed over the disturbance. This anticyclone is contributing to good outflow aloft and low vertical wind shear, making the upper level environment favorable for development.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good.

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