Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert near the Philippines
The area of convection in the South China Sea has continued to strenghthen, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert for the next 6 to 24 hours.
Winds in the area are estimated to be 18 to 23 knots, and the system is moving southwestward at 9 knots.
This area of convection, associated with the remnants of 24W is now located approximately 345 nautical miles southwest of Manila, Philippines.
Deep convection continues to persist over the low level circulation center (LLCC) and convective banding is evident in satellite imagery. The LLCC appears to be improving, with 15 to 20 knot winds.
Upper level analysis indicates an improved upper level environment with light to moderate vertical wind shear and favorable diffluence aloft.
Vertical wind shear values have decreased and are expected to continue to decrease as the mid-tatitude trough to the North moves eastward.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1005mb.
Due to the increase in deep convection over the LLCC and lower vertical wind shear, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good.