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Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert in Indian Ocean – UPDATE

February 2nd, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Area of convection in Indian Ocean - February 2nd, 2009

Area of convection in Indian Ocean - February 2nd, 2009

The area of convection previously located near 15.6S
69.1E is now located near 15.1S 67.6E, approximately 780 nautical miles east-northeast of La Reunion Island.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC) with formative convective banding over the wester semi-circle.

This is confirmed by another image that shows an improved LLCC with deep convection building on the western portion of the disturbance.

Outflow is expected to continue improving due to a developing anticyclone near the center, and an approaching shortwave trough located southwest of the system that will move east and further enhance outflow over the next 12 to 18 hours.

Overall, the environment has improved; however, moderate vertical wind shear (VWS) continues to limit the rate of development.

The system will likely develop slowly over the next 24 to 48 hours as it tracks west-southwestward under these generally favorable conditions.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004mb.

Based on the improved consolidation and outflow, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good.

source JTWC

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