Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert in Indian Ocean
Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within 130 nautical miles either side of a line from 15.6S 83.7E to 18.4S 87.2E within the next 12 to 24 hours, although available data does not justify issuance of numbered tropical cyclone warnings at this time.
Winds in the area are estimated to be 25 to 30 knots. METSAT imagery at 082330Z indicates that a circulation center is located near 15.9S 84.1E. The system is moving east-southeastward at 10 knots.
The area of convection is located approximately 860 nautical miles southeast of Diego Garcia. Animated infrared imagery indicates that the low level circulation center (LLCC) has continued to consolidate with deep convection persisting over its southern quadrant.
Upper level analysis indicates the LLCC is currently located equatorward of the upper level subtropical ridge axis, which is providing ample poleward outflow. The location of the LLCC in relation to the ridge axis is helping to keep the vertical wind shear low.
An upper-level longwave trough upstream has been helping to enhance poleward outflow, but has kept the vertical wind shear high on the southwestern quadrant of the area.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb.