Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) Tracking South-southeastward23.2S 49.2E
Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) is tracking south-southeastward along the western periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the east. The system is expected to continue tracking along the periphery of this ridge throughout the forecast period, turning eastward and accelerating after TAU 48 as it tracks toward a developing mid-latitude trough to the southwest and undergoes extratropical transition.
Increasing easterly vertical wind shear associated with weak upper-level troughing to the northwest of the cyclone and the approaching midlatitude trough to the southwest should somewhat offset the impact of strong upper-level outflow and passage over warm water, resulting in a slow weakening trend over the next 36 hours.
Thereafter, passage over cooler water and increasing shear will continue to drive weakening, offset by favorable interaction with the approaching midlatitude trough. The numerical models are in good general agreement with the forecast scenario, although many have shifted to the west in the later portion of the forecast. The current forecast lies to the east of the multi-model consensus, consistent with previous forecast, but may be adjusted a bit westward on the next forecast if the numerical models continue to depict a track that lies farther to the west.