Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) Still Tracking Southward16.4S 52.7E
Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S), continues to track southward along the western periphery of a north-south oriented subtropical steering ridge (STR). The system should continue to track southward through TAU 36 then will begin to turn south-southeastward as it rounds the southern periphery of the STR.
Here, it can be seen encroaching upon the Madagascar shoreline thanks to the use of the Chelys Satellite Rapid Response System (SRRS) “borders” feature (best observed in full image), which allows the coastline to be seen through the convection that partially covers it.
Dynamic model guidance is in tight agreement (135 nm spread in model solutions at TAU 96) through TAU 96, therefore, the JTWC forecast is positioned close to the multi-model consensus. There is high confidence in the forecast track. Felleng is expected to weaken rapidly after TAU 24 as it encounters increasing, strong vws associated with an approaching shortwave trough and also tracks over cool SSTs, which range from 25ºC to as low as 20ºC. The system is also forecast to begin extra- tropical transition (ETT) near TAU 48 and should complete ETT by TAU 96 as it becomes embedded in the midlatitude westerlies and begins to accelerate southeastward.