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Tropical Cyclone Anggrek (02S) Expected to Strengthen

3.8S 96.5E

November 1st, 2010 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek (02S) - October 31st, 2010

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Track of TC 02S

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek (02S), located approximately 140 nm north of the Cocos Islands, has tracked southeastward at 07 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 15 feet.

Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates that deep convection has reintensified and expanded over the low-level circulation center (LLCC) over the past 06 hours.

The majority of the deep convection is displaced over the western semi-circle due to moderate vertical wind shear. Water vapor animation shows decreasing equatorward outflow with fair poleward outflow.

The current intensity averages 40 knots. The system is tracking southeastward along the western periphery of the low- to mid-level near-equatorial ridge but is expected to gradually turn southwestward after TAU 36 in response to a building subtropical ridge south of the system. The peak intensity of 65 knots is forecast at TAU 48 due to improved poleward outflow and favorable SST. TC 02S is then forecast to weaken over cooler SST.

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