Tropical Cyclone Anggrek (02S) Expected to Steadily Intensify4.2S 95.8E
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek (02S), located approximately 70 nm
southeast of the Cocos Islands, has tracked southward at 05
knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 20 feet.
Animated multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) shows tightly wrapped low level convective banding with central deep convection. There is uncertainty in the initial position due to deep convection obscuring the low level circulation center (LLCC) in MSI. The initial intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 knots.
Upper level analysis indicates TC 02S is located just north of the subtropical ridge axis in an area of low vertical wind shear and divergence aloft. The system is currently tracking along a mid-level subtropical steering ridge centered to the east of the LLCC.
The subtropical steering ridge is expected to re-build to the southeast and allow TC 02S to turn southwestward within the initial TAUs. Additionally, the system is expected to steadily intensify as it continues to track into a more favorable upper level environment and over water with marginal ocean heat content.
Around TAU 48, a mid-level, upper level trough is expected to weaken the steering ridge to allow the system to turn poleward. TC 02S should begin to weaken with increased vertical wind shear associated with the upper level trough and decreasing ocean heat content and then dissipate as a significant tropical cyclone by TAU 96.