Earth Snapshot RSS Feed Twitter
 
 
 
 

Tropical Cyclone 26S (Jade) Forecast to Weaken, then Regain Intensity

April 9th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 26S (Jade) - April 9th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone 26S (Jade) - April 9th, 2009

Track of TC 26S © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 26S

Tropical Cyclone 26s (Jade), located approximately 325 nautical miles west-southwest of La Reunion, has tracked east-southeastward at 2 knots over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 16 feet.

TC 26S has weakened due to strong vertical wind shear over the past 12 hours. the majority of convection is being sheared to the east of the low level center.

An anticyclone south of the system is blocking any significant poleward motion. The dynamical aids almost uniformly predict a deep trough moving off the coast of South Africa after TAU 36. This trough is forecast to push the baroclinic zone further equatorward, break down the ridge, and ultimately capture TC 26S.

Jade is forecast to weaken below the 35-knot threshold near TAU 24, but will begin to re-intensify near TAU 48, as the the system begins to transition to extratropical.

TC 26S - enhanced image

TC 26S - enhanced image

The strong vorticity forecast with the trough supports an extra-tropical transition and reintensification scenario, which represents a change from the previous forecast.

Although the possibility still exists that TC 26S might completely dissipate before it can encounter the baroclinic zone, the models and synoptic evidence suggest otherwise.

Leave a Reply


About Us

Earth Observation

Organisations

Archive

July 2017
M T W T F S S
« Mar    
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31  

Categories


Bulletin Board


Featured Posts

Information

28


Take Action

Widgets