Tropical Cyclone 26S (Jade) Forecast to Weaken, then Regain Intensity
Tropical Cyclone 26s (Jade), located approximately 325 nautical miles west-southwest of La Reunion, has tracked east-southeastward at 2 knots over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 16 feet.
TC 26S has weakened due to strong vertical wind shear over the past 12 hours. the majority of convection is being sheared to the east of the low level center.
An anticyclone south of the system is blocking any significant poleward motion. The dynamical aids almost uniformly predict a deep trough moving off the coast of South Africa after TAU 36. This trough is forecast to push the baroclinic zone further equatorward, break down the ridge, and ultimately capture TC 26S.
Jade is forecast to weaken below the 35-knot threshold near TAU 24, but will begin to re-intensify near TAU 48, as the the system begins to transition to extratropical.
The strong vorticity forecast with the trough supports an extra-tropical transition and reintensification scenario, which represents a change from the previous forecast.
Although the possibility still exists that TC 26S might completely dissipate before it can encounter the baroclinic zone, the models and synoptic evidence suggest otherwise.