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Tropical Cyclone 26S (Jade) Forecast to Lose Strength

April 7th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 26S (Jade) - April 7th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Tropical Cyclone 26S (Jade) - April 7th, 2009

TC 26S © JTWC

TC 26S

Tropical Cyclone 26S (Jade), located approximately 160 nautical miles north-east of Antananarivo, Madagascar, has tracked south-southwestward at 10 knots over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Animated infrared satellite imagery and an SSMI/s image indicate that the system has continued to track further inland over rough terrain and weaken, especially over the northern semi-circle.

Convective banding over the southern semi-circle has remained intact with a fairly defined low-level circulation center (LLCC).
The current intensity is based on the satellite signature and observations from FMMS showing 27-31 knot sustained surface winds.

Jade is forecast to track increasingly southward under the steering influence of the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge positioned east of the system. TC 26S is expected to weaken rapidly and to dissipate within the next 24 hours.

Available model guidance is in fair agreement through TAU 24 but quickly diverges with the UK Met Office and GFS models indicating a sharp re-curvature and an unlikely intensification trend. NOGAPS, GFDN and WBAR indicate a more realistic weakening trend and continued south-southwestward track over land.

The remnants of the system will eventually track back over water but are expected to be  at less than 35 knot intensity.

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