Tropical Cyclone 23P (Jasper) Forms in Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 23P (Jasper), located approximately 505 nautical miles northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, has tracked east-southeastward at 13 knots over the past six hours, moving away from Queensland, Australia (visible at the bottom left). Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 2.5 from PGTW and 3.0 from ABRF and consolidating structure evident in recent microwave satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the system has reached cyclone intensity.
Jasper is tracking east-southeastward along the western periphery of a subtropical steering ridge. This general motion is expected to continue through the next 12 hours. Thereafter, a second subtropical ridge to the southwest will induce a competing steering influence, slowing forward track motion and turning the system northwestward after TAU36.
The numerical model trackers, with the exception of WBAR and GFDN, are in fair agreement with this scenario. However, depictions of the exact track vary, and the current forecast lies close to the model consensus.
TC 23P is expected to intensify throughout the forecast period under the influence of dual-channel upper level outflow. Increasing vertical wind shear after TAU 24 should limit this intensification to a slower rate.