Tropical Cyclone 17S (Gabrielle) Tracks Eastward
Tropical Cyclone 17S (Gabrielle), located approximately 630 nautical miles east of the Cocos Islands, has tracked eastward at 3 knots over the past 6 hours.
It is visible here northwest of Australia’s North West Cape, the peninsula near the center of the visible coastline.
Animated infrared satellite imagery and an SSMI/S image indicate the low level circulation center (LLCC) had
become completely exposed over the past 12 hours, but in the past 4 to 6 hours has tracked towards deepening convection that has quickly started to organize.
The LLCC has been able to maintain its structure and an edge of swath QUIKSCAT pass indicates 30-35 knots of unflagged winds on the western periphery.
Upper level analysis indicates TC17S is under the axis of an upper level subtropical ridge, providing an environment with decreasing vertical wind shear and a rapidly developing poleward outflow.
TC17S will begin to track along the northwestern periphery of a low to mid-level ridge that is beginning to re-orient and build over Western Australia as a mid-latitude shortwave trough tracks eastward across Australia.
The increased outflow and favorable sea surface temperatures will provide some intensification through TAU36, but as the system tracks into stronger vertical wind shear and colder SST, it will weaken beyond TAU 36.
Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.