Tropical Cyclone 15P Forms in Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 15P, located approximately 120 nautical miles northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, has tracked southwestward at 10 knots over the past 6 hours.
Maximum significant wave height is 10 feet.
Animated multispectral imagery indicates improving convection developing over a low level circulation center.
A WINDSAT pass indicates tight banding wrapping about the LLCC with deep convection on the southern periphery.
The upper-level environment has remained favorable with an anticyclone over the LLCC and enhanced poleward outflow caused by a shift in the upper-level trough/low northwest of the system.
Animated water vapor imagery reflects this improvement with expanding poleward outflow evident over the southern semi-circle.
SST is also favorable for further development.
TC 15P will track around a mid-level subtropical ridge that is weakening on its western flank and will allow the system to shift from a southwestward track to a southward track.
Continued upper level outflow and a favorable SST will allow TC 15P to intensify through TAU36 then begin to weaken as a mid-latitude trough interacts with the system.