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Tropical Cyclone 15P Forms in Pacific

February 17th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 15P - February 16th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone 15P - February 16th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone 15P, located approximately 120 nautical miles northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, has tracked southwestward at 10 knots over the past 6 hours.

Maximum significant wave height is 10 feet.

Animated multispectral imagery indicates improving convection developing over a low level circulation center.

A WINDSAT pass indicates tight banding wrapping about the LLCC with deep convection on the southern periphery.

The upper-level environment has remained favorable with an anticyclone over the LLCC and enhanced poleward outflow caused by a shift in the upper-level trough/low northwest of the system.

Animated water vapor imagery reflects this improvement with expanding poleward outflow evident over the southern semi-circle.

SST is also favorable for further development.

TC 15P will track around a mid-level subtropical ridge that is weakening on its western flank and will allow the system to shift from a southwestward track to a southward track.

Continued upper level outflow and a favorable SST will allow TC 15P to intensify through TAU36 then begin to weaken as a mid-latitude trough interacts with the system.

source JTWC

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