Tropical Cyclone 13S (Gael) Expected to Track over Madagascar – UPDATE
Tropical Cyclone 13S (Gael) is forecast to track westward through TAU 24 under the steering influence of the mid-level subtropical ridge positioned south of the system.
After TAU 24, an approaching midlatitude shortwave trough is forecast to track over Madagascar and will weaken the ridge, allowing TC 13S to begin re-curving.
This trough will also serve to enhance poleward outflow allowing the system to intensify up to 95 knots by TAU 48.
The dynamic aids are in good agreement through TAU 24, but differ thereafter on the timing of recurvature.
NOGAPS depicts the earliest turn poleward, and GFS takes the system the furthest west before turning it south.
This forecast favors the consensus solution which correlates well with the EGRR tracker and seems to depict the likliest timing and strength of the approaching trough which will be the driving factor for recurvature.