Tropical Cyclone 09S (Fanele) Intensifies
Tropical Cyclone 09S (Fanele), located approximately 260 nautical miles west-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, has tracked northeast at 8 knots over the past 6 hours.
Animated imagery shows excellent equatorward outflow with deep convective bands wrapping into the low level circulation center.
Satellite intensity estimates indicate that the system has strengthened over the past 12 hours.
Environmental analysis indicates that TC09S remains in a favorable area with warm sea surface temperature and low vertical wind shear aloft.
The system is tracking along the eastern periphery of a deep level ridge extending out of Mozambique. This track is further enhanced by the cyclone’s interaction with TC08S, located off the southeastern coast of Madagascar.
Both tropical cyclones are clearly visible in the image. The stronger and more organized system with an eye positioned to the West is 09S (Fanele), while the waning system to the East is 08S (Eric).
Fanele is expected to continue to intensify and track northeastward over the next 12 hours before it recurves southeastward as it drifts into the western boundary of another mid-level ridge east of Madagascar. This recurvature will drag the system into land, causing it to dissipate by TAU 48.
Maximum significant wave height is 18 feet.