Tropical Cyclone 03B (Three)
Tropical Cyclone 03B located approximately 165 nm east of Cape Guardafui, Somalia has tracked north-northwestward at 05 knots over the past six hours. The current position represents a departure from the previously forecast track, and is based upon animated multi-spectral imagery which depicts an elongated and partially-exposed, low level circulation center (LLCC).
This change in storm motion over the past six hours is due to the enhanced low-level cross equatorial gradient flow south of the system which is providing a weak poleward steering influence on the sytorm. Convection continues to wane over the LLCC under the effects of increased vertical shear with the majority of activity confined to the southwestern quadrant of the storm in an area of enhanced low-level convergence. Current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates of 25 to 35 knots, multiple nearby surface observations and scatterometry data depicting 30 to 35 knot unflagged winds near the center. While outflow remains fair, vertical wind shear continues to degrade the upper level exhaust mechanism.
Tropical Cyclone 03B is expected to maintain 35-knot strength through tau 12 and then will begin gradually weakening due to moderate vertical shear and land interaction while approaching the somali coast under the steering influence of the low-level sub-tropical ridge north of the system.
Near tau 36, the storm will move over the Gulf of Aden where it is expected to continue weakening as it encounters lower ocean heat content values, increased vertical wind shear and the intrusion of drier air from the north. Tropical Cyclone 03B is expected to dissipate over land near tau 72 along the coast of Yemen.