Tropical Cyclone 02S Forms in the Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 02S, located in the Indian Ocean approximately 185 nautical miles northeast of Cocos Island, has tracked east-southeastward at 12 knots over the past six hours.
Recent imagery depicts a well-consolidated low level circulation center (LLCC) with improving deep convection wrapping into the west and south sides of the circulation.
Although convection has decreased slightly over the past 12 hours, recent imagery shows a resurgence in convective activity with banding becoming tighter and better defined.
The LLCC lies beneath a weakly developing upper-level anticyclone in an area of moderate easterly vertical wind shear.
This, coupled with relatively weak ocean heat content values may serve to limit the maximum intensity of the system.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 30 to 35 knots, with 30 to 40 knot winds near the center. Maximum significant wave height is 8 feet.
The system is expected to track east-southeastward over the next 48 hours under the influence of low- to mid-level westerly flow equatorward of the system.