Tropical Cyclone 01B Forms in Bay of Bengal
Tropical Cyclone 01B, located approximately 375 nautical miles east of Chennai, India, has tracked west-northwestward at 6 knots over the past 6 hours.
Recent imagery indicates that increased deep convection has persisted over a well organized low level circulation center (LLCC).
TC 01B has begun to increase track speed over the past 6 hours from a quasi-stationary position and is tracking to the west-northwest.
A mid-level ridge located over India and another mid-level ridge located over southeast Asia have caused a weak steering environment over the past 24 hours.
However, in the last 6 hours the increase in track speed suggests that the ridging to the west of the cyclone has become more of a dominant influence and will help to track the system to the west-northwest and eventually turn it more northward.
Upper level analysis indicates that there is subsidence on the northern periphery of the LLCC, which will hinder outflow in the poleward channel, leaving only the equatorward outflow.
Based on the single channel outflow and interaction with the upper level subsidence over the northern portion of the Bay of Bengal, the forecast intensifies TC 01B at a climatological rate through TAU 48 with only small increases beyond that time.
Sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear are favorable for increased development
throughout the forecast period. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.