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Potential for development of tropical cyclone near Philippines remains fair

November 14th, 2008 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Area of convection near the Philippines - November 14th, 2008

Area of convection near the Philippines - November 14th, 2008

Area of convection - enhanced image

Area of convection - enhanced image

The area of convection previously located near 7.5N 129.9E
is now located near 7.3N 127.1E, approximately 90 nautical miles east of Davao, Philippines.

The disturbance seems to have reduced and fragmented convective banding as it approaches Mindanao.

It has a broad circulation with winds of 10 to 15 knots. Upper level analysis shows a Tutt cell to the east providing good equatorward outflow although the vertical wind shear is 10 to 20 knots.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12 to 18 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1006mb.

The system is expected to cross into a lower vertical wind shear environment in the Sulu Sea. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone remains fair.

source JTWC

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