Little Movement Expected from Tropical Cyclone 24S in Mozambique Channel
Tropical Cyclone 24S, located approximately 320 nautical miles west-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, has tracked south-southeastward at 8 knots over the past six hours.
Here, it can be seen in the Mozambique Channel, between the island nation of Madagascar (right) and Mozambique on the African mainland (left).
The main image is of the system while it was still an area of convection, while the multispectral satellite image to the left shows it after becoming a full-fledged cyclone.
Recent animated water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad area of deep convection flaring near an organized low level circulation center (LLCC).
This LLCC lies in an area of low vertical wind shear near the center of an upper level mesoscale anticyclone. Additionally, northwesterly flow ahead of an approaching upper level trough to the Southwest of the cyclone has introduced a strong poleward outflow mechanism.
Current intensity is based on Dvorak values of 2.5 and 2.0 from PGTW and KNES, respectively. A ship just to the west of the LLCC also reported 30-knot southerly winds.
Sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content are high in the Mozambique Channel and, along with favorable upper level support, will enable further development of this system.
TC 24S is currently in a weak steering environment and is expected to remain quasi-stationary over the next 12-24 hours before it begins to slowly drift to the west. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.