Probability for Tropical Cyclone Near Australia Upgraded to “Good”
The area of convection is located approximately 545 nautical miles east-northeast of Learmonth, Australia.
Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within 155 nautical miles either side of a line from 17.2S 123.3E to 19.4S 117.5E within the next 12 to 24 hours.
Available data does not justify issuance of numbered tropical cyclone warnings at this time, although the possibility for formation has been upgraded from fair, yesterday, to good.
The color image on the left shows the eastern part of the system, while the multispectral image to the right, taken a few hours later, shows the entire area. The system is moving southwestward at 17 knots.
Winds in the area are estimated to be 25 to 30 knots. METSAT imagery indicates that a circulation center is located near 17.6S 122.4E.
Animated multispectral satellite imagery indicates that the low level circulation center (LLCC) that had previously been tracking over land is beginning to move over water.
Sea surface temperatures will be very favorable for the LLCC to continue to develop as it tracks to the southwest.
Upper level analysis indicates low vertical wind shear and good outflow as the LLCC is just equatorward of an upper level subtropical ridge.
Mid-level ridging over Australia will be the dominant steering influence tracking the LLCC towards Learmonth. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1002 mb. Due to the LLCC moving over water into a favorable environment and beginning to consolidate, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good.