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Good Potential for Cyclone Development Off Australian Coast

February 6th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Area of convection - February 6th, 2009

Area of convection - February 6th, 2009

The area of convection previously located near 16.5S 116.1E is now located near 16.3S 114.2E, approximately 355 nautical miles north of Learmonth, Australia.

Animated nultispectral satellite imagery indicates improved consolidation despite moderate to high vertical wind shear.

The system has a defined low-level circulation center (LLCC) with improved convective banding wrapping into the center.

The LLCC is located within a generally favorable environment with fair poleward outflow, warm SST and deep moisture.

The disturbance is forecast to track generally westward and should continue to develop.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 996mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good.

source JTWC

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