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Good Possibility for Tropical Cyclone Formation off Northern Australia Coast

December 18th, 2008 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Area of convection, Australia - December 18th, 2008

Area of convection, Australia - December 18th, 2008

Area of convection - enhanced image

Area of convection - enhanced image

Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within a 70 nautical mile radius of 14.2S 128.4E within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Winds in the area are estimated to be 25 to 30 knots, and the system is moving south-eastward at 6 knots.

The area of convection is located approximately 175 nautical miles south-west of Darwin, Australia.

Recent imagery depicts a low level circulation center (LLCC) that is beginning to have deep convective banding wrapping towards the center.

The system is in a region of low vertical wind shear with favorable upper level outflow support and favorable sea surface temperatures.

The current limiting factor is the system’s proximity to land, currently between 30 and 60 nautical miles from landfall. At current track and speed, landfall could occur within the next 10 to 12 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27 to 32 knots, and minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1000mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good.

source JTWC

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