Good Possibility for Formation of Tropical Cyclone near India and Sri Lanka
The formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible near India within the next 6 to 24 hours, although the JTWC has said that the available data does not yet justify issuing numbered tropical cyclone warnings.
The area of convection is located approximately 170 nautical miles north-northeast of Kotte, Sri Lanka, where it is quasi-stationary at 3 knots. Winds in the area are estimated to be 30 to 35 knots.
Recent imagery has shown a rapidly consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC) with deep convection beginning to move over water from northern Sri Lanka.
Upper level analysis has shown that the system is under the southern periphery of a ridge axis with low to moderate vertical wind shear.
Water vapor animation has indicated good poleward and equatorward outflow.
Maximum sustained winds near the center are estimated at 30 to 35 knots and minimum sea level pressure is near 1000mb.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been upgraded to good.