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Fair Potential for Tropical Cyclone Development in Indian Ocean

November 18th, 2008 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Convective area near Malaysia - November 18th, 2008

Convective area near Malaysia - November 18th, 2008

Convective area near Malaysia - enhanced image

Convective area near Malaysia - enhanced image

An area of convection in the Indian Ocean is located approximately 360 nautical miles west-northwest of Cocos Island.

Imagery shows a rapidly consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC) with deepening convective spiral bands on the west and south sides.

The system lies equatorward of an upper level ridge axis in an area of moderate easterly vertical wind shear, good diffluence aloft and fair poleward outflow enhanced by a mid-latitude trough.

Its maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. The minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1003mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been upgraded to fair.

source JTWC

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