Fair Possibility for Tropical Cyclone near Sri Lanka
An area of convection approximately 700 nautical miles east of Colombo, Sri Lanka, has remained quasi-stationary in the Indian Ocean over the past 6 hours. The southeastern tip of Sri Lanka is just visible on the left side of the main image.
Recent imagery has depicted a slowly consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC) with weak convective banding.
An elongated LLCC with 20-25 knot unflagged winds near the center appears to be present.
The system remains in a generally favorable environment with low vertical wind shear and strong diffluence aloft, fueling persistent deep convection.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots and minumum sea level pressure at 1008mb.
Due to the presence of a developing LLCC with convection banding beginning to wrap into the center, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains fair.